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Did I step on a landmine with NIHD?  XML
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[Post New]05/30/2008 11:41:55
   Subject: Re:Did I step on a landmine with NIHD?
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apreuss
100 5M: m100 for 5 monthsM: m100M: m100M: m100M: m1005Q: Top Quartile 5 times5Q: Top Quartile 5 timesQ: Top QuartileQ: Top Quartile
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Yes, it does! And so do I!

updated July 21. neutral and undecided. Keeping cash and eventually missing some opportunities seems the smaller risk. For the advanced (trading in days ranges): certain patterns hint at time compression and bullish advance. They do contradict tested and solid analysis methods. But their occurence is ..hm... somewhat surprising and therefore ...interesting.

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[Post New]05/27/2008 12:51:02
   Subject: Re:Did I step on a landmine with NIHD?
[Up]
apreuss
100 5M: m100 for 5 monthsM: m100M: m100M: m100M: m1005Q: Top Quartile 5 times5Q: Top Quartile 5 timesQ: Top QuartileQ: Top Quartile
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NIHD, for long a superstar in the stock sky, has in the last two years fallen to a level to be able to reach for the stars again

updated July 21. neutral and undecided. Keeping cash and eventually missing some opportunities seems the smaller risk. For the advanced (trading in days ranges): certain patterns hint at time compression and bullish advance. They do contradict tested and solid analysis methods. But their occurence is ..hm... somewhat surprising and therefore ...interesting.

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[Post New]10/10/2007 22:38:31
   Subject: Did I step on a landmine with NIHD?
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jczerw
100 Crown: m100 over 2 yearsCrown: m100 over 2 years5M: m100 for 5 months5M: m100 for 5 monthsM: m100M: m1005T: Top Ranked 5 times5T: Top Ranked 5 times5T: Top Ranked 5 times5T: Top Ranked 5 timesT: Top Ranked5Q: Top Quartile 5 times














Author:
jczerw
Link:
http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/jczerw/2007/10/did_i_step_on_a_landmine_with.php
Summary:
If you'll recall I dumped my VLO position and put it into NIHD on 9/28. I selected NIHD after comple
ting a screen looking for higher margin, high growth stocks. NIHD was the winning candidate off that
entire list of about...


If you'll recall I dumped my VLO position and put it into NIHD on 9/28. I selected NIHD after completing a screen looking for higher margin, high growth stocks. NIHD was the winning candidate off that entire list of about 40 stocks. Telecom in emerging markets looked like a winner.



A few days after my initial purchase the stock price began to fall. No news was reported, so I added again. The first purchase was at 81.66, the second at 73.65. The price continued to fall.

It wasn't until Monday evening that news came that S's CEO was resigning. But so what? NIHD was spun off from S in 2003. And in the last two years NIHD has advanced 80% while S has only advanced 20%. And they are different businesses. So on 10/9 I added again at 69.86. My cost basis is now 79.63.



The interesting thing is that the price of NIHD fell from a forward PE of 22 to 19. S's forward PE is also 19. But NIHD's margins and growth rate are 12 and 40. And S's margin is less than 1 and their growth rate is low single digits. It looks to me like there was knowledge of the CEO resignation at S, prior to the announcement, and that some institutional players took the NIHD premium off the table in advance of the news.



So, did I step on a landmine? Not really. I certainly would have rather made my move a week later, but the fundamentals of NIHD remain strong and there isn't a strong linkage to S. I think

some institutions got nervous. A conference call on the 25th by NIHD should help.



So, I didn't step on a land mine, but I did stumble into a hole. VLO is up 10% since I sold it, and NIHD has fallen 10% since I bought it. The move hurt my portfolio in the short term, but I'm confident it will play out positively by the end of the competition.





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