I think the nemisis of investors is volatility, it's akin to "flock shooting" for a duck hunter, you leap out of the duck blind expecting to see a bird or two, and fifty are within range. Instead of picking a target and killing it, you blast away at the group assuming you will get a couple with enough lead in the air...

...and you wind up missing all of them.

As a beginner, this first up, now down, part of the market puts me in foreign and dangerous ground. Trending up or trending down is somewhat easier, as you can pick an offensive or defensive stance, and hope the tide raises or lowers your boat with all the others.

But the daily wild gyrations of the market makes me want to chase things, something bound to lead me into trouble. Like everyone else, I have a "real" job and with this tumultuous market you go to lunch a rich man, and return broke. Lacking understanding of much of what I'm witnessing is a distinct liability. That coupled with the Devil whispering in your ear, "...the market's down, sell ...the market's up, buy" makes me thankful I don't have to do this as my day job.

My goal is survival. I was shaken to find myself in the top 25, all it does is add another Devil on your shoulder, this one insists, "...you're pretty good at this, you may even be psychic." I know better, I got lucky - and somehow stayed lucky.

In attempting to plot a strategy from here, I was doing a mental inventory of what facts I know hoping something magical would result, some brief moment of clarity that would give me a solid course to plot:

1) Election Year - the current administration will want to keep the economy intact until the next regime takes the reins. Market Influence: Positive

2) The contest duration is 3 months or less, there will be no additional earnings reports from companies after this round. Market Influence: Negative (no buying in anticipation of earnings)

3) Much bad news reported by non financial companies, much of it was overshadowed by other earnings reports from "hot" companies like AAPL and VMWare. Market Influence: Negative

4) Financial institutions reported more losses than first mentioned. Market Influence: Negative

5) Report of Merrill Lynch attempting to fob additional bad paper onto other institutions so their books would smell sweeter. Market Influence: Negative (likely others are attempting to hide losses that will eventually daylight)

6) A number of industry experts claim the market has more outstanding shorts than any market in recent memory. Market Influence: Positive and Negative. Negative implies sentiment is that the market will go down, Positive implication is if it doesn't the act of covering the shorts will force funds and investment houses to buy stock to cover losses.

7) The dollar appears likely to decline further. Market Influence: Both?

This simplistic listing of facts suggests I should remain cautious, as there are more negatives than positives. It also makes me leery, as some may cause the "up" portion to go up steeply, and the "down" portion to fall just as sharply.

I guess this is the classic "Maalox Moment." There is no clear path, just a hint of an implication.

...and I'm thinking that herein lies the last critical test of any investor, whether he is following a schema, is a market mechanic, or just a casual rube like me; can he maintain the resolve not to chase the volatility in both directions, despite the allure or horror of a steeply moving graph?

Moving forward, I think the volatility will be part and parcel of what we'll be enduring for the last two months of the contest. My goal will be to study the basket of 15 stocks that I have already invested in and attempt to maintain a steady course. At this late stage they're known commodities and as such behave somewhat predictably in a market that is unpredictable.

I'm not a duck hunter, I'm a fisherman. That means I lack the good sense to come in out of the rain, and am patient as hell. I'm thinking my patience will be sorely tested in the coming weeks.