Marketocracy General Forums

PML is an exceptionally rare illness that occurs in the setting of chronic immunosuppression. Originally, it was a few cases with long term chemotherapy; more recently it was common in AIDS when the CD4 count got below 10. It is the result of reactivated latent virus in the oligodendrocytes of the brain and is essentially irreversible when it happens. I doubt there is any intrinsic ability of tysabri to reactivate virus, therefore I believe that it will be back as monotherapy and will become the dominant therapy for relapsing-remmitting MS. It has fewer side effects, the infusions are preferred by patients and its efficacy as monotherapy is superior to the IFNs. Given the potential for tysabri to be back as a billion dollar drug in a year, I am buying. The long term for ELN is in AD, in which previous setbacks in the program really look like theay are being worked out. I am buying and staying in.

In my opinion Tysabri will be back as mono therapy. No Avonex, Rebif, Betaseron or Copaxone combo's. This will be to ELN's advantage in the long run.
The immunology of the drug action and interaction is complex. Quoting from 1 study posted on YMB by Neuro1111

"Multiple sclerosis is characterized by elevated levels of proinflammatory cytokines produced by Th1 cells and decreased levels of anti-inflammatory cytokines produced by Th2 cells. IFN-beta treatment shifts the immune response from the Th1 to Th2 pattern, thus enhancing the production of anti-inflammatory Th2 cytokines such as IL-4, IL-10, and decreasing the production of proinflammatory Th1 cytokines such as IFN-gamma. To determine which IFN-beta has the stronger immunomodulatory effect we compared the levels of IL-4, IL-10, and IFN-gamma of 12 relapsing-remiting MS patients treated with IFN-beta1b (Betaferon) with those of 10 patients treated with IFN-beta1a (Avonex). There were no statistically significant differences in duration of disease, number of relapses before and during treatment, and in EDSS after 2 years of treatment. After 1 year of treatment the concentration of IFN-gamma was significantly lower in the Betaferon group, and concentrations of IL-4 and IL-10 were significantly higher in the Avonex group. It appears that IFN-beta1b has a downregulatory effect on both Th1 and Th2 cytokines, while IFN-beta1a causes a shift of the cytokine profile toward the Th2 phenotype. These two IFN have different influences on the pattern of cytokines in MS: IFN-beta1a enhances the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-4 and IL-10 and IFN-beta1b decreases the production of the proinflammatory cytokine IFN-gamma."
PMID: 15177779 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

So Avonex causes a Th1 to Th2 shift. (Th1 and Th2 are subsets of T-helper lymphocytes). We know Tysabri blocks activated alpha-4 adhesion molecules of T-4 lympocytes. This combo may have left the 2 individuals vulnerable.
Th1 cells secrete IL-1 and gamma interferon , which enhance cell-mediated responses and inhibit both Th2 subset cell activity and the humoral immune responses. Th1 is inflammatory , produces IL2, IFNgamma, TNFbeta, provides help to B-cells in IgG2a production, activates macrophages and CTL and stimulates delayed type hypersensitivities.
One possible explanation is that the lack of Th1 enabled the proliferation of JC virus (JVC)leading to Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).
Tysabri has no such effect on Th1. This explains why no cases have been seen in mono.
Elan's AD work continues to be the real catalyst for me and needs the $$ from Tysabri to get us to 2008.
I continue to be very long ELN with a 5 year time horizon and fully expect Tysabri to recover and go on to be the wonder drug it is. And yes this in my humble opinion is a buying opportunity.

I'm expecting a little more upside, with a rally to the high of the gap down, followed by a mini retracement, followed by one last gasp push into the gap, and that is where I'm looking to enter a short position. I wouldn't play it long, since they are in danger of going belly-up, and bad news has a habit of following bad news. I could $12 here very easily, though it's just as likely that we wake up one morning and it's trading at 12 cents. That's my view of the current situation, FWIW.

It'll have a hard time getting through 8 without some kind of positive news. I'm looking to sell some there and then wait for it to consolidate the gains of the past few days before jumping back in. I'm tempted to lock in my 28% two day profits, but I remember riding this one from 2 to 14 a couple years back, so I'll give it a little more time.

I am betting big as well. Real money and marketocracy.

elan is the buying opportunity of a lifetime at these prices.

i've been following this company for over 3 years. i know thier science.

i'm betting big with my own personal portfolio at around $6. just stay off margin.

*The Resurrection Fund*

Speaking of 'bust bottoms' I think this debacle has run its course. I just bought 8000 at 5.65 so I'm committed now (or should be). This is way overdone in my opinion. I mean *two* deaths and only because they were on combination therapies. Even though tragic I'm sure those people and their families were happy for the relief the drug was able to bring them.

This too will pass just as the Celebrex & Vioxx fiasco is in the process of doing. My doctor wouldn't give me more than 50mg of Vioxx because my blood pressure was slightly elevated, even though I was in tremendous pain. Any doctor who prescribed 200 or 400mgs to his/her patients just simply wasn't doing their job. Something to keep in mind is that even though the drug may be a science the FDA is not. Why aren't they getting any blame?

"I'd still like a title/ author of a good (comprehensible) book on Elliot wave theory..."

The Elliott Wave Principle, by Robert Pretcher, spends a lot of time talking about the rules and meaning, though was written in late '70s, so charts are forecast - calling for a massive wave 5 blow-off rally followed by a depression - are a bit dated. Remember that was when the Dow was still trapped beneath 1000 and looked like it would never have a bull run ever again (thus a great call on rally, and we see if the depression part comes to fruition.)

Crest of the Tidal Wave, by Robert Pretcher, written in mid 90's is more in depth at 'what comes next' for all asset classes and gives oodles of long term projections. He was wrong - early - on timing of peak, though the overall pattern since has been spot on. Good book for gauging larger perspective on deflation and how each asset is slated to act, and the reasons why.

Neither books are light reading, and you may be able to find everything you need for free by googling Elliott Wave. I've written an article on the subject, and Elliottwave.com also has free educational stuff.

I use the principle in the broadest sense, aiming to buy near bust bottoms and sell near boom tops, so the general outline in my article and other free walk-throughs may be all you need.

Being a fundamentalist, and admittedly biased as such, I see no Elliot waves but waves of greed and fear in addition to some gambling, mainly news driven. And waves of panic dumping by those squeezed out by margin calls. Big boys like Fidelity, Wellington and a few hedge funds got huge hair cuts and some of them dumped too (see todays Barrons).

I'm trying to get a better picture, and this is what I have figured out so far:
Odds for PML (progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy) in general population are about 1 in 10 million, which is extremely rare. For patients with weakened immune system there is 1-4% PML incidence, typically associated with AIDS (see Sala et al.; Journal of General Virology, 2000: http://www.socgenmicrobiol.org.uk/JGVDirect/17423/17423ft.htm
).

So far there were:
a) no PML cases in patients receiving Avonex (BIIB drug) monotherapy which is on the market since FDA approval in 1996.
b) no PML for TYSABRI (ELN drug) monotherapy (out of ~ 3000 patients).
c) 2 reported cases of PLM in Tysabri+Avonex trial. Both patients were healthy except for MS (i.e. no AIDS or otherwise wakened immune system) and received TYSABRI in combination with Avonex for more than two years. (the total number of patients reported in the trial treatment group is 627 http://www.news-medical.net/?id=6470
)

There is a clear problem with the combo therapy: 2 out of 600 patients is quite a high incidence, significantly higher than in general population. If there was just one case that could be just a random event, but with 2 cases this is highly unlikely. What is really intriguing: no patient reportedly developed PML on monotherapy, as it would be expected if Tysabri causes the problem. If Tysabri alone was the problem I would also expect about 10 cases out of these 3000 patients on TYSABRI monotherapy to develop PML. As long as there is none, Tysabri is in good shape to get back on the market as a stand alone therapy. To me it appears that Mr. Market bets heavily on the worst possible outcome for ELN; i.e. that TYSABRI monotherapy related PLM cases will be found and the drug will be permanently withdrawn from the market.

See also:
Plausible link between Tysabri, T-cell supresion and PLM:
replace two stars * with underscores _ in the following link:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05*11/b3924055*mz011.htm

"Serious infections occurred in 1.3 percent of placebo-treated patients and 2.1 percent of Tysabri-treated patients. Serious infections included bacterial infections such as pneumonia and urinary tract infection, which responded appropriately to antibiotics."
http://www.news-medical.net/?id=6470

We could use some help from a biologist here?

<<I can't tell you how money I would have made had someone pointed this basic pattern/cycle out when I first started investing in 1989.>>

Just to give you a little insight on how bad _my_ market timing skills are (and always have been), I should point out that I bought my first stock ever... in March of 2000.

I'd still like a title/ author of a good (comprehensible) book on Elliot wave theory...

"I just don't see how it can possibly be as effective as fundamental analysis"

Fundamentals are all well known - to everybody - and are simply carrots to bring the investment rabbits to the pasture so scalpers like me can have a feast once in a while.

Fundamentals aren't the reason to buy or sell a stock, rather the idea that other people are going to be buying or selling to stock due to those fundamentals, with the view that most are going to be naively wrong.

TA simply tries to measure what the other guy is doing.

Elliott Wave simply tries to measure the extremes of investor sentiment.

Are the views of 3 seperate analysis better than just the fundamental 1? You bet.

Healthcare? What is happening these would be best viewed under what _should_ be happening at this point in the bull cycle.

Here's the basics: during recessions the stock market is weak and earnings prospects bleak and the only light in the sky in consistency of healthcare stocks (and other non-cyclical growth stocks,) and this group leads the stock indexes from the crash lows of the bear. After a glorious run/mini-bubble, these growth stocks falter and begin new bear corrective cycles as money seeks hotter growth prospects of cyclical stocks. Then the bull turns to a bear and all stocks for a while. Then healthcare bottoms and hey Presto! the cycle repeats.

Rinse and repeat.

Healthcare won't bottom until the bear has been running a while, though there will no doubt be upside bumps along the way.

I can't tell you how money I would have made had someone pointed this basic pattern/cycle out when I first started investing in 1989.

You can send the check to Wildmap.com, mastercard and visa accepted :)